for Supply Chain
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Going Somewhere Slowly:
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Unemployment creeps up. Massachusetts unemployment rates have been creeping up, but the July rate is still below the national unemployment rate of 5.9%. However, throughout this recession, unemployment has never approached the 9.6% unemployment rate that the last recession produced in 1992. |
Purchasing Index Dips. Another important indicator, the Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers' Index, shows that economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew for the seventh consecutive month in August. However the index itself fell from June's 56.2% level to 50.5%, and remained there through August. If more than a few months pass with the index sitting at under 50%, it may be possible to forecast a return to recession. September's numbers will be closely watched when they come out to help forecast whether the market will continue to grow slowly or stall.
In mid-August, the Federal Reserve Board left its benchmark short-term interest rate unchanged at a four-decade low. Some analysts point out that after so many federal-funds rate cuts and considering the current low rate of 1.75% the Federal Reserve has less room to maneuver than before. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan hinted at the possibility of another cut if conditions worsen.
One of the factors the board will use to make interest rate decisions is the level of retail sales. July's numbers show that they advanced 1.2% from June. July statistics on employment were far less heartening. The rate remained at 5.9%, the same as June, the Labor Department said. Moreover, the number of temporary workers, which had been growing in earlier months and usually rises as the economy is beginning to improve, shrank last month. The jobs report seems to correlate with the Commerce Department announcement in mid August that factory orders fell sharply in June, a setback in industrial output after several months of gains.
No clear directions for jump-starting the economy have come from President Bush's economic forum in mid-August. However brokerage head Charles Schwab offered a mildly upbeat reminder during the forum when he said, "Markets don't stay down forever."
According to Anna Bernasek, writing in the current FORTUNE magazine, "The U.S. economy virtually stalled in the second quarter preliminary numbers show it grew a paltry 1% as consumer spending and job creation both slowed."
She points out that if American consumers begin to reduce their current rate of spending, the economy could dip back into recession. Europe and the Far East are slowing down too, and that would slow the US's move out of the current doldrums.
Clearly, we're not looking at wonderful, uplifting news these days. If you're currently not working, the stagnant job situation can make it hard for you to be motivated to go out and find work.
That happens to me too. The passing of Labor Day is my yearly signal to get back to work. I admit that I am not a good casual worker, so I have to "formalize" to gear up for the day. I dust off the good shoes, put on a nice pair of freshly pressed pants, a starched shirt and a tie. Thus arrayed, I can drive to the office ready to do business.
When I reach the office, I take time to project my goals for a short time frame so I have a good idea of what I can achieve. I find the contacts I need to reach, then I force myself to make most of my calls first thing in the morning, because I do my best work then.
I accept rejection knowing it's part of the job and I consider my day a success if I keep making the calls until I've reached my goal for that day. The end result I look for? I get a new job to fill because I put in the time, effort and attitude.
That's what works for me, but we all motivate ourselves in different ways. Find out what works for you and sooner or later you'll be rewarded for your effort.
